Predictions for 2009 general elections

We won’t know anything till all the votes have been counted. Seriously.

You can read what the various surveys say, you can listen to the experts, but all you’re going to get is speculation propped up by statistics, tied together with what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls narratives.

I think the media should just say, “We don’t know,” and move on to actually covering the candidates and their parties, instead of speculating on who’ll win and by how much.

And it’s okay to say that you don’t know because elections are complicated. You don’t know how many people are going to show up to vote, you don’t know who they will vote for, and you don’t know how the presence of different candidates (or parties) may decide who will ultimately win.

But, that won’t stop them, so here’s my prediction.

It’ll be the UPA that will win if they keep their coalition partners happy. If not, the NDA will win, but only if they don’t lose any more partners. But, you have to watch out for the Third Front because it seems to be gaining ground, as both the NDA and UPA have relationship (partner) issues.

So, in summation, it’s either the UPA or the NDA or the Third Front. Remember that you heard this prediction first on this blog.

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